Orange County Housing Demand is Expected To Double By 2045
Orange County is in a particularly difficult situation as it desperately requires commercial real estate developers to build 98,000 units by 2030 as housing demand is expected to double by 114,000 units by 2045, putting immense pressure on regulators and the local economy as the County falls behind in providing current and future residents with housing.
The immediate effects have already started to be felt within the local districts, as future residents are being diverted from the area due to low housing availability. With such limitation, there has been a visible shortage of industry professionals that provide all middle income jobs such as laborers, teachers or emergency services workers.
The issue at hand isn't exactly new, as it had already been reported over 10 years ago - back in 2008 - when it was identified that such shortage would drive off middle income professionals from moving to the County. This being due to old zoning ordinances being outdated and having little ability to attract and fixate new residents. Some of the only available options for industry professionals is to live outside Orange County, but commute costs and time spent to do so have people reconsidering moving or looking for jobs located elsewhere.
If construction doesn't keep up with demand, the housing deficit will virtually double over the next 25 years. The shortage of housing provoked a spike in home prices and rents, driving off these same professionals that are the backbone of the Orange County economy and local districts.
The housing shortage is already taking a toll and statistics have consistently shown the deficit has increased year over year. The average age experiencing current levels of low housing supply was 38 in 2017, it was a mere average age of 33 years old at the start of this Century. The population is growing and showing no signs of improvement, whilst real estate development can't keep up with the creation of new jobs, attracting new professionals and new families alongside them.
To combat the housing crisis and spur new development, a new specific plan called the NHSP (North Harbor Specific Plan) which has designated 305 acres of land within central Orange County allows Real Estate developers to requalify properties located in the plan area for favorable zoning ordinances in order to host shopping, dining and housing in the same premises. It’s a new plan that may work as a temporary but reliable solution, according to Wallace Walrod, Chief Economic Advisor for the Business Council. They may solve two issues in one single attempt, by providing a refreshed use to property infrastructure needed for new housing to attract current and future workforce across all industries, occupations and income levels.
The North Harbor Specific Plan would allow for approximately 4,600 residential units and 2 million square feet of commercial space to be developed within the plan area to attract and retain professionals. Consider it a statistical picture of all current housing prospects and future considerations alongside job growth. Ultimately, the will is present but without further land to expand into and the unpopularity of having to fully entitle a project from scratch, development comes to a standstill.
The answer may well lie on looking at existing projects that are already approved by the City and ready to build. There is one particular project in Orange County by the name of “The Harbor Apartments” which is a fully entitled, mixed use project which is approved to build 4 stories of 97 units and 10,000 square feet of retail a long side North Harbor Boulevard. The project area is located in a highly urbanized, built-out portion of central Orange County. It is generally surrounded by residential and retail uses in one of the primary gateways to the gentrifying Downtown Santa Ana trade area. Cities that face this type of constraints may as well look at Fully Entitled projects as a chance to take existing infrastructures and allow them to be reconverted into modernized housing that offer their inhabitants - current and future - all the answers to their problems. Most importantly, it will ease the housing shortage now!
